Saturday, November 05, 2005

Weekend Picks

I'll give my college picks here at this time. My first bet was a 6 point teaser with Central Michigan, Notre Dame, and Missouri. I don't know too much about Central Michigan, however a popular gaming publication has gone 9-0 this year in their weekly top play and Central Michigan is their top play this week. That was enough for me to tease that one. I think the Notre Dame game will be closer than people think, but with the teaser I was able to get it down to 3 points. Straight up, I would expect Tennessee to keep this one closer than the 9 point spread. ONe concern I have is that the road team has WON the last 4 meetings between these teams. Missouri was getting 11.5 against Colorado, so with the teaser I was able to get 17.5. I like the hook there; 17 is a popular number in football and that half point may come in handy. Missouri is a better team than people realize and should be able to keep in Colorado's reach.

I also played two straight up games this weekend. I played Central Michigan, for the reasons stated above. I also played Nevada over Hawaii. One trend that led me to this pick is that Hawaii hasn't covered their last road game of the season in the past 5 years. This one opened at 6.5, but I was able to get Nevada -5. These seem to be the money makers this week.

Other picks that I considered but didn't pull the trigger on are Michigan State -4 against Purdue and Wisconisn +12 against Penn State. The only reason I didn't play the Wisconsin game is I have a rule to not bet for or against the Badgers. As for Michigan State, this might be a good play. Purdue has yet to cover a spread this year (0-7-1) and are in turmoil. The chemistry on that team is awful and Joe Tiller might be on his way out the door at seasons end. Michigan State has an explosive passing game and Purdue's pass defense is not good. Michigan State should be able to cover the 4, however I don't trust them enough on the road, so I layed off that one.

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